Ad-Hoc Report, Syrian-Turkish Normalization

Mounting speculation over a potential normalization between Ankara and Damascus has required actors to consider the consequences for humanitarian operations in Syria. This report outlines four plausible scenarios for normalization pathways over the next eight months leading up to the 2023 Turkish election. IMMAP assessed the implications of each scenario for humanitarian actors in Northeast and Northwest Syria (NES and NWS)and the contingencies affecting their likelihood. A chain of plausibility approach is used to build out these scenarios from a nexus of baseline indicators outlining the likely steps each party takes towards achieving normalization, underpinned by informed assumptions about their incentives.